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AuthorTopic: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??  (Read 3060 times)

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ganavk

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Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« on: November 05, 2008, 01:14:28 AM »
I don't remember this topic being discussed in detail in this DG. I see many of us rejoicing in BO's win (  I am assuming he is winning :)) But is he really good from India's perspective from the long term.
There are many policies that BO follows that are really not all that good IMO. Few of them
- Taxing the companies outsourcing the jobs going outside. Jobs could dry up in India
- regularly voted against the free trade policies and more of protectionist than John McCain
- Wants Kashmir issue to be solved with US getting involved ( good or bad ?)
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dextrous

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2008, 01:18:05 AM »
I don't remember this topic being discussed in detail in this DG. I see many of us rejoicing in BO's win (  I am assuming he is winning :)) But is he really good from India's perspective from the long term.
There are many policies that BO follows that are really not all that good IMO. Few of them
- Taxing the companies outsourcing the jobs going outside. Jobs could dry up in India
- regularly voted against the free trade policies and more of protectionist than John McCain
- Wants Kashmir issue to be solved with US getting involved ( good or bad ?)

a lot of things start to shape up after the candidate meets with leaders of the other country...until then it is all campaign rhetoric.

what i'm convinced about is this...obama understands that pakistan is a safe harbor for terrorists and that this is a big problem. this has been the key problem with past administrations who have failed to see this simple point
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ramshorns

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2008, 02:28:15 AM »
From what I read in an article in The Hindu couple of weeks ago it is very good for India that Obama wins.   I will try and find that if I get a chance.
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justforkix

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2008, 02:48:32 AM »
I think both nations need each other to an extent - So, I don't expect too much differences w.r.t. policies towards India either ways....
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Aloo Kashmiri Ul Haq

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2008, 04:44:26 AM »
I believe Joe Biden was actively involved in the nuclear deal with India
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dextrous

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2008, 05:02:47 AM »
this would be a good time to give resumes to be under-under-under secretary of foreign affairs to india.

where does one apply i woner?

i think 1000s of jobs/appointments will be made in the next 2 months
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dextrous

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2008, 05:05:19 AM »
this would be a good time to give resumes to be under-under-under secretary of foreign affairs to india.

where does one apply i woner?

i think 1000s of jobs/appointments will be made in the next 2 months


http://marketplace.publicradio.org//display/web/2008/10/28/angling_for_jobs/?refid=0
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Libran

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2008, 05:39:36 AM »
I don't remember this topic being discussed in detail in this DG. I see many of us rejoicing in BO's win (  I am assuming he is winning :)) But is he really good from India's perspective from the long term.
There are many policies that BO follows that are really not all that good IMO. Few of them
- Taxing the companies outsourcing the jobs going outside. Jobs could dry up in India
- regularly voted against the free trade policies and more of protectionist than John McCain
- Wants Kashmir issue to be solved with US getting involved ( good or bad ?)

a lot of things start to shape up after the candidate meets with leaders of the other country...until then it is all campaign rhetoric.

what i'm convinced about is this...obama understands that pakistan is a safe harbor for terrorists and that this is a big problem. this has been the key problem with past administrations who have failed to see this simple point

yes..election rhetoric...

in 2004, remember Bush raising the pitch on anti-outsourcing... and then he went back to his old idiotic ways ...

An 8 year blunder that has brought US down to its knees - economically & politically.
things can only look up from here.

Irrespective of who is President of USA, the world needs INDIA ..  that friends, is the wholesome truth
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keep-it-cool

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2008, 06:27:33 AM »
- Taxing the companies outsourcing the jobs going outside. Jobs could dry up in India

This is fair ..it is a much better way of doing what Raj Thakeray is trying to do. The option to outsource is still open and companies just have to check out the economics in view of the new taxes.

After all, Obama has his own constituency - American people - that he needs to take care of.

I personally think a slightly better option would have been to provide tax benefits to those who do not outsource.

- regularly voted against the free trade policies and more of protectionist than John McCain

Will need more details on this to figure out whether good or bad

- Wants Kashmir issue to be solved with US getting involved ( good or bad ?)

That may be his view ... but India also has a say in this and so does Pakistan ..so, it cant be a one way issue here.

On the other hand, for the first time, I have heard a US President being so clear about Pakistan being a terrorist state and talking about funding costs .. which is only good for India, I guess
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ganavk

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2008, 03:16:26 PM »
Here's something on differences between McCain and Obama and the implication on India
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Columnists/Where_McCain_scores_over_Obama/articleshow/3641429.cms
SWAMINOMICS
Where McCain scores over Obama
26 Oct 2008, 0057 hrs IST, Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar
 Print      Email      Discuss     Share     Save     Comment    Text:
Barack Obama looks certain to beat John McCain and become the next US president. Most Indians will be delighted. An Obama victory will symbolise the vanquishing of racism and the dismal Bush legacy.

Besides, McCain is a military hawk, especially on Iraq. Obama is not exactly a dove, but is far less a military adventurer than McCain, and is preferred by Indians on this score too.

Yet, a look at the voting record and campaign content of the two candidates suggests that McCain might in many ways be better for India than Obama, especially on economic issues.

A nasty global recession has begun. Nouriel Roubini of New York University predicts we will suffer the worst economic downswing since the Great Depression. So, pressures will mount for protectionist measures and beggar-thy-neighbour policies in the US, hurting countries like India. Apart from erecting import barriers and subsidising dumped exports, US politicians will seek to curb the outsourcing of services to India. Visa curbs will slow the movement of skilled workers and their dollar remittances back to India.

McCain is one of the few American politicians in either party with the courage and conviction to stand up to protectionist populism. By contrast, Obama embodies protectionism.

Look at the accompanying chart. It shows that McCain has voted 88% of the time against bills creating trade barriers, and 90% of the time against export subsidies for US producers. Few other senators have such a splendid record.

Obama has served a much shorter time in the Senate, and avoided voting on many key issues. He has voted against trade barriers only 36% of the time. He supported export subsidies on the two occasions on which he voted, a 100% protectionist record in this regard.

In 2007, he voted to reduce visas issued to foreign workers (such as Indian software engineers), and to ban Mexican trucks on US roads. He sometimes voted for free trade - he supported the Oman Free Trade Act and a bill on miscellaneous tariff reductions and trade preference extensions. More often he voted for protectionist measures including 100% scanning of imported containers (which would make imports slower and costlier), and emergency farm spending.

In 2005 he voted to impose sanctions on China for currency manipulation, and against the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). He voted for the Byrd amendment, a disgraceful bill (later struck down by the WTO) that gifted anti-dumping duties to US producers who complained, thus making complaining more profitable than competitive production.

Obama says the North American Free Trade agreement is a bad one, and must be renegotiated. He has opposed the US-Colombia Free Trade Agreement on the bogus ground that Colombia is not protecting its trade union leaders from the drug mafia. In fact, such assassinations have fallen steadily from 205 in 2001 to just 25 last year. Obama is cynically twisting facts to woo the most protectionist US trade unions. This cannot but worry India, which may also be subjected to bogus slander and trade disadvantages.

By contrast, McCain has consistently voted for open trade. He has opposed federal curbs as well as private curbs on outsourcing to countries like India. He opposed the disgraceful Byrd amendment on anti-dumping duties. He voted against farm subsidies and labour standards for imports (which are not necessarily bad but could become a disguised form of protectionism).

Unlike Obama, McCain voted against imposing trade sanctions on China for supposedly undervaluing its currency to keep exports booming and accumulate large forex reserves. India has followed a similar policy, though with less export success than China. But if indeed India achieves big success in the future, it could be similarly targeted by US legislators and, will need people like McCain to resist.

Obama favours extensive subsidies for US farmers, hitting Third World exporters like India. This has been one of the issues on which the Doha Round of WTO is gridlocked. McCain could open the gridlock, Obama will strengthen it.

Obama also favours subsidies for converting maize to ethanol. The massive diversion of maize from food to ethanol has sent global food and fertiliser prices skyrocketing, hitting countries like India. But McCain has always opposed subsidies for both US agriculture and ethanol. While campaigning, he had the courage to oppose such subsidies even in Iowa, an agricultural state he badly needs to win if he is to become president.

Okay, some readers will say, McCain may be better for India on economic issues, but will be a disaster on foreign policy issues. I'm far from sure. All Iraqi political parties want the US to withdraw most troops within a year and all troops by 2011, so a US withdrawal is certain regardless of who becomes US president. McCain is a hawk on Iran while Obama says he will talk without preconditions. But the difference may not mean much, since Iran refuses to talk before withdrawal of US support for Israel and US troops from the Middle East.

So when Obama wins, don't cheer too loudly. It will be great to have a black US president. It would be even greater if he followed McCain's economic policies.
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dextrous

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2008, 03:23:35 PM »
ganav,
thanks for sharing but the article is clearly written by a free-market hawk who thinks trade, trade, trade, trade baby without regard to environmental and ethnical standards among trading partners. as an economics major, i realize that economically trade is good and helps each nation maximize its output, however, one cannot completely ignore the ramfications of free trade. a lot of treaties, such as NAFTA, are unfair to workers and have little regard for environmental protections. so just because mccain blindly supports all free trade treaties, doesn;t mean it is a good thing.
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flute

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2008, 03:35:47 PM »
I am really excited about Obama's victory but the article ganavk posted too have some really good points. The point is not about environment or job loss etc., that is stuff for another discussion, this article is about implications for India. In fact, those are pretty much my only reservations with regard to Obama. I am not sure if Obama's first term will be like that of Clinton with lukewarm relations with India ( especially if he rubs us the wrong way by talking about kashmir, outsourcing etc.)
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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2008, 04:37:05 PM »
outsourcing taxation if that happens will be a real issue. From a us economy perspective it is the right thing to do .... will hurt some of us who consistently work with offshore teams. We need US workers to have good jobs.
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ganavk

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2008, 05:04:55 PM »
Another one by a very respected blogger..

http://acorn.nationalinterest.in/2008/11/05/mubarack-o/


President Obama has many real crises that he must handle. Kashmir is not one of them.

So Barack Obama waited until the very last stage of the campaign before actually revealing what exactly he had in mind when he said he wanted to “facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and try to resolve the Kashmir crisis”. He meant that the United States would appoint a “special envoy”—that unhappy graveyard of diplomacy, given their record of failure—to “figure out a plausible approach”.

    …and essentially make the argument to the Indians, you guys are on the brink of being an economic superpower, why do you want to keep on messing with this? To make the argument to the Pakistanis, look at India and what they are doing, why do you want to keep n being bogged down with this particularly at a time where the biggest threat now is coming from the Afghan boarder? I think there is a moment where potentially we could get their attention. It won’t be easy, but it’s important.

    Q. Sounds like a job for Bill Clinton.

    A. Might not be bad. I actually talked to Bill, I talked to President Clinton about this when we had lunch in Harlem. [Joe Klein/Swampland/TIME]

If the good Indian-Americans at USINPAC had heard that before—and Mr Obama’s campaign probably made sure they didn’t—they might have had something different to say. That apart, what Kashmir crisis? In a world that’s not short of events that fit that description, Kashmir—even after this summer’s incidents—is not in crisis. So Mr Obama would do well to “devote serious diplomatic resources” to places where there really is a crisis. Like the geographical region to the West of the India-Pakistan border. The special envoy could walk any distance westwards from the Line of Control and find any number of crises that he needs to solve rather urgently.

In fact, for a platform that emphasises change, Mr Obama’s ‘Kashmir thesis’ is a remix of an old idea that didn’t ever work. [See these older posts] In the current geopolitical and geoeconomic situation, it’s even less likely to work. In fact, the special envoy might be told that “you guys are on the brink of not being an superpower, why do you want to keep on messing with this?”

But the Indian reaction can be more sophisticated. New Delhi could welcome a special envoy and have meetings with him in exotic locations around the subcontinent. (Clocking frequent flier miles comes with the job of being a special envoy). In the best case, it won’t achieve much beyond what is already taking place bilaterally between India and Pakistan. What is more likely though, is that it will create false hopes among sundry separatists and delay Kashmir’s return to normalcy.

If Mr Obama really wants change, he’d do well to tell the Pakistanis to stop worrying about the wishes of the Kashmiri people and start worrying about their own. He doesn’t actually have to tell them, though, because that’s what they are doing these days anyway.

The business of attempting to increase America’s popularity in Pakistan by getting involved in solving Kashmir has run its course. Getting involved in the Kashmir dispute is unlikely to assuage Pakistani opinion as long as the US continues to carry out attacks in Pakistan. But Mr Obama must realise that if the United States does not try to keep India on its side in Afghanistan, it’ll have no one left. That’s something that the Indian government must impress on America’s new president at the very outset.
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prfsr

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2008, 06:47:05 PM »
Calling Kashmir not a crisis is an insult to the thousands that have dies - both innocent civilians as well as armed forces. One can express opinions about the solutions to a problem without disrespect and devaluing ourselves.

It is a crisis - irrespective of whether you want external interference.
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flute

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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2008, 06:54:24 PM »
Calling Kashmir not a crisis is an insult to the thousands that have dies - both innocent civilians as well as armed forces. One can express opinions about the solutions to a problem without disrespect and devaluing ourselves.

It is a crisis - irrespective of whether you want external interference.
disagree, kashmir is a trouble spot for India not a crisis. And no kashmir right now is not a crisis for India. We can drag this one for another hundred years and still maintain things as they are in kashmir. This in no way means we are disrespecting the dead or people fighting for India in Kashmir. It is essentially this military/security apparatus which is stopping it from becoming a major crisis for us.

For me India's crisis lies in internal terror ( both bombing and selected, targeted killing of communities), narrow minded castiest, regionalistic & extremist tendencies of Indians. If not for these problems, India's time has arrived.
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Re: Barack Obama ..good or bad for India ??
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2008, 07:21:40 PM »
to add to what I said earlier on kashmir, I think India need not do anything in kashmir right except making sure we give good deal/fairness to law abiding citizens, don't rig elections, make sure security forces don't go over board with human rights abuses etc. , keep the mediations pot boiling with pak & so called separatists, let them vent a lil bit on the streets of Srinagar(no big deal) and leave it at that, there is nothing to solve over there.

In another 10-15 yrs, things will turn around so much, it will actually go the other way around..there will be rush to join the prosperity on offer from India rather than go with a failed state like Pakistan or independence. Just let it be.

Now, the bigger challenge as I said is, make sure indians don't sabotage their own march to prosperity & equitable soceity with their narrow minded petty region thinking. Only indians can stop India now.
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