Rams: I don't think it has anything to do with a corrupt BCCI. Selection involves judgement. And- I can see very reasonable people coming to the conclusion that SRT coming out of a slump is a good bet. There was a span of a decade plus, where he did not really have a bad series. More importantly, I don't see anybody exactly playing barn burner innings on the domestic circuit and banging on the doors of selection. At present I see both VVS and SRT making it into an Indian test side not an either/or. In my mind, SG will have more of a struggle getting in as YS attempts to establish himself than either SRT or VVS.
However, as far as VVS, SRT comparisons go- 281 notwithstanding, I think SRT stacks up fine with VVS even in recent years. We often use the "281" as a reference point for VVS' standard. But that is not the case. VVS, I would argue, is an underachiever- given the talent he brings to the table. Also, this idea of performing at a "critical" time or during a "win" is pretty bogus. If the majority of a player's good innings occur when his side wins, that means he typically sucked when his team lost. Arguably,then, if the player was able to perform in some of those losing causes those losses could have been avoided. Does that make him responsible for the team's defeats? If that is the case- then we need to apply the offset i.e. good innings in a winning cause offset by the times when the player got out cheaply in a defeat. Besides, most of the time when a guy goes out to bat he does not know what the outcome is going to be. Every run has value while he is at the crease. That is why picking and choosing games and assigning them some higher value, is too subjective to have merit. Plain cold averages, even if not perfect- are more useful than cherry picking.
Anyway, just for fun, I thought I would take a look at the last few years' test averages for both players. I picked 2001 onward, because 2001 is the year that VVS started to establish himself as a premier player in the Indian side. Top row is SRT, second row is VVS. I see two things. (1) Clearly, SRT slumped a lot in 2006 and (2) both SRT, VVS compare very well with each other during the 2001-6 period.
So, the real question from SRT's perspective is whether his 2006 record is representative of what we will see in the future, or whether he can get back to what would be an "average" level by SRT's standards. I can see the selectors taking a view that SRT will get out of that slump. Now, if this goes on in 2007- then no question, SRT is toast.
2001 10 1003 155 62.68 3 6
10 869 281 54.31 1 5
2002 16 1392 193 55.68 4 5
15 984 154* 51.78 2 5
2003 5 153 55 17.00 0 1
5 595 148 85.00 2 3
2004 10 915 248* 91.50 3 2
12 513 178 32.06 1 2
2005 6 444 109 44.40 1 3
8 508 140 46.18 2 3
2006 8 267 63 24.27 0 1
10 561 100 40.07 1 4