http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071201/NEWS09/71201009/-1/caucus December 1, 2007
Obama pulls ahead for Democrats in Iowa Poll
By THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa's Democratic presidential caucuses, while the party's national frontrunner Hillary Clinton has slipped to second in the leadoff nominating state, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll.
Despite the movement, the race for 2008's opening nominating contest remains very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, just over half of likely caucusgoers who favor a candidate saying they could change their minds.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register's May poll, held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way battle.
The lead change appears after weeks of increasing criticism of Clinton by Obama and Edwards about her position on U.S. policy toward Iran and questions of her candor.
Meanwhile, Clinton has recently begun accusing Obama of inexperience and criticizing his proposal to expand health insurance coverage.
The poll shows what has continued to be a wide gap between the top three candidates and the remainder of the field. The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Nov. 25 to 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Iowa City Democrat Katharyn Browne said she abandoned her support for Clinton in the past month and now supports Obama in light of the Iran issue.
Obama spent weeks in October and November attacking Clinton's support for a measure that allowed President Bush to declare the Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization, a move Obama said was a step toward war. Clinton said the measure enhanced U.S. negotiating strength with Iran.
"An Iran war terrifies me," said Browne, a 30-year-old University of Iowa student.
Browne said she feels Obama is a more inspirational candidate than Clinton, despite the intensifying crossfire between them.
"I just think that Obama is more of a positive candidate overall," she said. "Aside from the Clinton-Obama interaction lately, it's nice to hear a candidate with a positive outlook. I think our country needs that right now."
Browne, who supported Clinton early partly out of gender loyalty, represents a shift among some women caucusgoers from Clinton to Obama.
In the new poll, Obama leads with support from 31 percent of women likely attend the caucuses, compared to 26 percent for Clinton. In October, Clinton was the preferred candidate of 34 percent of women caucusgoers, compared to 21 percent for Obama.
Women represent roughly six in 10 Democratic caucusgoers, according to the new poll.
Obama also dominates among younger caucusgoers, with support from 48 percent from those younger than 35. Clinton was the choice of 19 percent in that group and Edwards of 17 percent.
The under-35 bloc represents 14 percent of Democratic caucusgoers, up from 9 percent in the October poll.
Obama has an advantage among first-time caucusgoers. He also leads among people who say they definitely will attend the caucuses.
Clinton is the top choice among caucusgoers 55 years old and older. The largest share of Democratic caucusgoers — exactly half — are in this age group.
Pleasant Hill Democrat Jack Hill is one of them. The 61-year-old salesman said Clinton is battle-tested and capable of bringing about changes on the domestic and international fronts.
"She's a tough old cookie," said Hill. "She's a tough woman and I feel we need a change from politics as usual."
Clinton continued to rate highest on key traits, such as most presidential, knowledgeable about the world, electable and experienced. She also was seen as the most ego-driven and negative.
Clinton and Obama were viewed as the most committed to public service, while Obama led on traits such as most likeable, principled and best able bring together Republicans and Democrats.
The former first lady continues to face stubborn misgivings, despite her dozens of visits to the state this year and increasing campaign presence of her husband, the popular former president.
Thirty percent of Democratic caucusgoers viewed Sen. Clinton as either mostly or very unfavorably, behind U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel. She topped the list of candidates whose nomination would be one of the biggest disappointments at 27 percent.
Other troubling news for Clinton included a sharp decline in support from members of union households, where she was the preferred candidate with support from 34 percent in the October poll. In the new poll, Clinton is third among union households with 21 percent.
Obama and Edwards have recently criticized Clinton's past support for the North American Free Trade Agreement, which they argue cost the United States millions of jobs. Clinton has said recently the trade pact, enacted during her husband's first term, did not deliver.
Obama's support among caucusgoers from union households rose from 20 percent to 28 percent since the October poll, while Edwards narrowly led, rising from 24 percent to 29 percent since the October poll.
Edwards, who finished second in the 2004 caucuses, led narrowly among men in the new poll and was tied with Clinton for the favorite in Iowa's rural areas. Rural Centerville Democrat Candace Scritchfield supported Edwards in 2004 and plans to again.
"He's a very down-to-earth and trustworthy person," said Scritchfield, a 44-year-old homemaker. "He has a lot of loyalty, that I can tell."
There was little movement in the rest of the field, despite aggressive campaigning in Iowa in the eight weeks between the two polls.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson remained in fourth place as the choice of 9 percent and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remained in fifth with 6 percent, both virtually unchanged from the October poll. All others had support from 2 percent or less.
Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a candidate. Seven percent said they were uncommitted or unsure about whom to support.
Reporter Thomas Beaumont can be reached at (515) 286-2532 or
tbeaumont@dmreg.com.
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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071202/NEWS09/312020005/0/caucus December 2, 2007
Huckabee new GOP leader in Iowa Poll
By JONATHAN ROOS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Mike Huckabee has leaped ahead of Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney in Iowa, seizing first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus participants.
Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on Jan. 3. That's a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred Thompson.
Other poll findings indicate that the former Arkansas governor is making the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa's social conservatives.
Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with the backing of 24 percent of likely caucusgoers. But that's a drop of 5 points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.
Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, the frontrunner in national polls, holds third place in Iowa at 13 percent, despite waging a limited campaign in the state.
Thompson, a former U.S. senator from Tennessee who waited until September to formally enter the race for the Republican nomination, has slipped to fourth place in the Iowa Poll, at 9 percent.
U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas are tied for fifth place at 7 percent each. Four other candidates trail them. The new Iowa Poll, conducted over four days last week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The complexion of the race could easily change in the last month of intense campaigning ahead of the caucuses, which lead off the presidential nominating process. Roughly six in 10 likely Republican caucus participants say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate. Poll participant Thelma Whittaker, a retired teacher from Columbus Junction, is leaning toward supporting Huckabee in the caucuses but also could back Romney.
"I'm a very conservative Republican and I feel that (Huckabee) follows through with those ideas," said Whittaker, who is troubled by the country's moral decline. On the other hand, she wonders if Huckabee is a strong enough candidate to win the White House for the GOP.
When it comes to Romney, "I go along with a lot of his ideas,'" Whittaker said, "but he's also done some flip-flopping that scares me on issues like abortion and taxes."
Huckabee has come a long way since last May, when he languished in a tie for sixth place in the Register's poll, garnering the support of just 4 percent of likely caucus participants then.
His campaign picked up steam after he notched a surprising second-place finish in the Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in August.
The Register's new scientific poll shows Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, leading Romney 38 percent to 22 percent among those who consider themselves born-again Christians. In October, Romney edged Huckabee 23 percent to 18 percent among people in that group, which accounts for one-half of all likely caucus participants.
Similarly, Huckabee holds a 2-to-1 lead over Romney among those who say it is more important for a presidential candidate to be socially conservative than fiscally conservative.
Here are some other key comparisons for the two leading candidates in the poll:
- Huckabee leads Romney among men, 28 percent to 20 percent. They run neck-and-neck among women.
- Huckabee draws more support than Romney among caucusgoers between the ages of 35 and 54, while Romney does better among younger adults. They compete almost evenly among those 55 or older.
Older Iowans generally turn out in larger numbers for the caucuses than do younger adults.
- Both candidates are regarded favorably by more than three-fourths of likely caucus participants.
- Huckabee outscores Romney and the rest of the Republican field as the candidate seen as the most socially conservative, the most civil in tone and the most principled.
- Romney leads on six characteristics, including the most presidential of the GOP candidates, the most fiscally conservative and the best able to bring about real change.
Giuliani, the poll's third-place finisher, is seen as the most electable of the candidates and also has a slight edge as the most effective negotiator and the best able to bring Republicans and Democrats together.
On the other hand, Giuliani is seen by more likely caucus participants as the most ego-driven of the candidates.
Other poll findings show that Giuliani is more of a polarizing figure than the other top-tier candidates in Iowa:
- Thirty-four percent of likely caucusgoers see him as one of the worst choices for the Republican nomination. Paul ranks second in that category, at 26 percent.
- While 61 percent regard Giuliani favorably, 38 percent have unfavorable feelings toward him. Only Paul has a higher unfavorable mark in the poll, at 44 percent.
"He's too New York," Whittaker, the retired teacher, said of Giuliani. "He doesn't understand us. He doesn't care to understand us."
But poll participant Mark Pottorff, an agronomist from Sergeant Bluff, sides with those who have a high regard for Giuliani, citing his experience as a federal prosecutor and big-city mayor.
"He is tough on crime and during September 2001 he led New York City through some very tough and dark days," said Pottorff, 51. "I think he has the ability and the fortitude to stand up to dictators and terrorists."
Pottorff's second choice for the Republican presidential nomination is Romney, citing his experience in business and government and his commitment to his family.
Other poll findings show Thompson, the fourth-place finisher overall, tying with Huckabee as the candidate who is most like Ronald Reagan — the Republican president often cited by party leaders as their role model.
Paul, an opponent of the war in Iraq, has the dubious distinction as the GOP candidate who outpolls his rivals as the most negative contender.
But Paul, who has a loyal following and a well-funded campaign, has been creeping up in the Register's polls this year of likely caucus participants, matching McCain's level of support in the latest survey.
Reporter Jonathan Roos can be reached at (515) 284-8443 or
jroos@dmreg.com--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AuthorTopic: US 2008 Presidential Politics Thread (Read 2597 times)
January 09, 2008, 05:28:01 AM