I doubt if it will be anything but a rk turner, so most likely neither SS nor IS will play, It will ZK, HS, AM, and PO !!!
I will be pleasantly surprised if ZK will play without getting injured before/during the match !!
Selecting KKD instead of Saha is just correcting a mistake - bad for Saha, but good from India's point of view.
No - good for KKD, bad for India. KKD is a below par keeper and averages 23 in his last 10 tests.
However overall he averags 27.77
http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/30045.html?class=1;template=results;type=batting
I think Cernu, you are thinking it completely from Wkeeping perspective. If that was how the teams were formulated, MSD should not have had made to the team on pure WKeeping skills.
I do not want MSD to be replaced. It is between KKD (or PP) and WS. KKD is a 23-27 averaging below par keeper. WS is unproven, but let's assume he is probably a 20-23 averaging, above par keeper. I would go for the latter. I am wary of wicket-keeping, because it can make a big difference. Think PP's botching up in 2003/4 Aus.
Now i understand you POV better. MSD plays as a bat and a separate specialist keeper like Saha plays.
While i think it is still too risky to try this approach for second test, but going forward, if the message is clearly communicated is worth a run.
However my view would be it may still NOT be sustainable in long run.
Reasons(
Needless to say these are my opinions ) :
1. For MSD to succeed as long term bat in tests scattered worldwide pitches, he has to be
MSD >bat RSharma,Badrinath,Yuvraj singh,Suresh Raina,Mvijay, Kohli,Pujara etc..
While MSD does have some numbers to his credit, but all the above names IMO deserve a batting spot before MSD if it comes to pure technical test batting based selection.
MSD with all the success against various teams in shorter format still averages
20.4 from 12 inngs he has played in Aus and SAF. i.e. 245 runs in 12 inngs. against a career avg of 42.
---------
MSD's batting avg in Aus against AUS
Mat Runs HS Bat Av 100 Wkts BBI Bowl Av 5 Ct St
unfiltered 42 2296 148 40.28 3 0 - - 0 109 20 Profile
filtered 4 141 38
17.62 0 - - - - 10 3
http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/28081.html?class=1;host=2;template=results;type=allroundMat Runs HS Bat Av 100 Wkts BBI Bowl Av 5 Ct St
unfiltered 42 2296 148 40.28 3 0 - - 0 109 20 Profile
filtered 2 104 47 26.00 0 - - - - 3 0
http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/28081.html?class=1;host=3;template=results;type=allround;view=innings------------------
In addition to these numbers it is his unorthodox style that gets me worried most, You can get away from that in shorter games, but may be difficult to hide this consistently in long run in tests. We may not have to go too far then the last game.
Given a preference i would bet my money on somebody like Rohit , Badri , Murali,Raina + others to succeed in tests as pure bat.
2. Differential in batting avg(between a Bat+keep vs Bat)- I understand you gave KSanga as example in different thread with high differentials.
My prediction would be he won't go close to KS. Most bats however over long run do increase their avg.
3.Team Balance: Comes back to you point of:
KKD is a 23-27 averaging below par keeper. WS is unproven, but let's assume he is probably a 20-23 averaging, above par keeper. I would go for the latter. I am wary of wicket-keeping, because it can make a big differenceIf there are very visible notable goof ups, his WKeeping should have already raised eyebrows which is not.
So he does not need to leave the Keeping because his keeping stds have deteriorated.
He has to relinquish it as we have an option in the team who we think is a better keeper.
But is MSD consistently dropping easy chances or missing easy runouts or stumpings ? NO. Then what is that value added? He may get some rest though which he can even take for the meaning less series.
MSD also does the keeping against the similar bowlers in other formats which is a plus.
4. Planned, Systematic crush of KKD(again personal opinion ): Dinesh Karthik has always been hovering around the Indian team as 13thman(read unlucky man). Poor guy was hardly given a consistent run with Gloves+bat. Dinesh Karthik in test format IMO would have been a better Keeper+ Bat than Dhoni if was given a consistent run. My personal read is MSD was scared what if DK succeeds.
e.g. In England, when MSD’s keeping was at its ebb, MSD decided to work on it rather selecting the alternative.
Last but not the least, most of the players get inducted in team on WKeeping skills with attitional batting advantage, with time, they become better batters( There is a direct correlation between keeping and batting- This I can say from my personal experience that when you stand behind the wicket for 20 overs and come to pick the bat: You see the ball much better, you are pre adjusted to the bounce, movement etc..). Although Sangakkara’s case negates this point, I would read Sangakkara as a better technically accomplished bat and his initial WKeeping skills helped to hone it further. Gillichrist can also be added here. Acttually even bowlers increase their batting average as they get more matured and refined and continue the consistent run.
While it may be worth a shot to have MSD playing as a pure bat with WSaha as keeper.
However this should not be but not at the cost blocking places of talented players like Raina,Rohit,Kohli,Badri, Pujara etc. I also feel very strongly MSD may not succeed as a pure test bat in varying conditions.