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proloy

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Indian politics comes a full circle
« on: May 18, 2009, 07:25:19 AM »
Try my latest blog post: http://attemptations.blogspot.com/ when you have time...!

Comments welcome.
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keep-it-cool

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2009, 07:51:41 AM »
Proloy,

I cannot leave comments on your blog from my work place ...but quite well written - agree with most of what you say.

In my view, the three main reasons why the BJP lost:

a) Negative line of campaigning - pot shots at Manmohan Singh (weak), Congress (budhiya), Rahul (fish in an acquarium, bacchcha), Priyanka (gudiya). Beyond a certain point, it rankles and does not stick. I mean one may disagree with Manmohan Singh's policies and not like his way of addressing the media or people but at the end of the day, he is a very well respected man - one of the few we have in Indian politics today. It was bound to backfire.

b) Varun *hi - it brought to the forefront what the BJP should never have allowed. I heard someone say on television something that I completely agreed with. If only LK Advani had sacked Varun *hi the moment that CD became public, he would have risen in the eyes of many as a statesman one can look up to. He would have bridged the gap that exists between him and Vajpayee (who cared two hoots about what the RSS thinks) to a large extent and a lot more people would have been comfortable voting for the BJP. That along with incidents like Kandamal (plus the main guy responsible being given a ticket from that constituency - leading to the break up with the BJD) meant that once again they have narrowed their appeal.

c) Vote bank: The BJP (not talking about its allies) does not have a presence in rural India worth writing home about. It is largely a party that appeals to the urban middle & upper class society. However, these people are reasonably well informed as well. You cant start making allegations such as: a) the Congress govt could not handle the economic challenge (when it was very evident to everyone that it was a global problem) or b) the Congress bowed before the US on the Indo US nuclear deal (when they themselves were propogating the very same deal) or c) overplaying the anti-terror plank without offering any solutions when, again, anyone who reads enough will know that tackling terrorism is not something that one party does materially better than the other. Again, Shekhar Gupta put it very well - the way they reacted after the Mumbai blasts was almost like making rotis on the funeral pyres of those who died in the tragedy.
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proloy

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2009, 12:06:33 PM »
Thanks for reading it, and your note of appreciation.

I concur with all three of your points.

1)Negative campaigning -- it was not so much potshots. Those are allowed. A little bit of fun is ok. But what came off as disgusting was the thorough lack of decorum. And that was not one-off. It was carried out in a sustained way.

People are projecting Modi as Prime Minister. I wonder if they even have thought about what they are saying. Look at the way the guy speaks. It's out and out crass. It comes across as totally uncultured, totally tasteless. Does someone really imagine such a person to add to the prestige of India in international forums? That is assuming, he's even allowed entry. Do we really want a Prime Minister who'll have trouble getting visa to another country? Who might even need to take his lawyer along all the time, and seek anticipatory bail before he goes somewhere?

The budhia, and gudia, and bartender and topiwala talks may do wonders for public entertainment. But nobody should believe that they'll be taken seriously, or will attract people, or fetch esteem for the speaker.

The BJP stuck to personality politics instead of policy matters. Advani imagined that he is an Obama, and mimicked all his success recipes -- website, televised debate, strong oratory,  everything. But he didn't have the most fundamental ingredient -- liberalism. Advani's trademark is his bigotry, which he calls principles. That essentially brackets him with Bush, not Obama. Yeah, Advani is principled, but so is Karat. But they are far removed from the pulse of the people. You can get your oil and baking powder and vanilla essence and your chocolate flavor all correct, but if you don't have flour, how will your cake rise? That flour is the liberal and inclusive approach. Advani missed that point.

Modi's brand of administration is good. The country needs that. It's emulatable. But nobody needs his brand of politics. Or public speaking. I'm sure any parent would be scared to see his children talk in the manner Modi does, and would instantly reprimand.

b) Varun *hi -- I do not really think that Varun *hi's aim was to threaten Muslims as a block. But it came across as that, and it did stoke such feelings amongst his followers. The guy was just a complete fool, who thought that he was becoming a hero by speaking thus. It was not so much Varun *hi's fault as that of the BJP senior leadership. They were fully in disagreement with Varun *hi but couldn't muster the courage to take an unequivocal stand -- so much for their talk of "Strong leader, decisive leadership".

Varun *hi won his battle and cost BJP all its allies, and the larger war. And the BJP still persists with its 'penny wise, pounds foolish' policies.

Kandhamal was not just a symbolic affair like the above, though. It's much more seriously a criminal affair, and deserves the strongest condemnation and punishment. Again the BJP was clueless to the extent that it ended up garlanding the principal perpetrator. For one seat, and the support of some fringe lunatics, it decided to give up on Naveen Patnaik, and also the popular support nationwide.

c) Votebank and support base: I do not think the BJP suffers so much from rural/urban or old/young divide. Its initial votebank was the Hindu hardliner who found some degree of identity in it. But it wasn't really limited to that. Wherever the BJP has been successful, it was because it could usurp the space of Congress opposition because of lack of other strong players occupying that seat. Wherever there is already a strong occupant like TDP in Andhra, BJD in Orissa, in Bengal (here Congress was the opposition, not the powerholder), in Punjab, in Kerala (the Left exists), in Tamil Nadu etc, even in Bihar  --  they have drawn a blank.

While I'm certain that the BJP's communal ideology has no mass appeal -- it appeals on that score to a very small minority -- the BJP still has been successful in getting the support of people who do not necessarily abide by its ideology in places where the opposition chair was vacant, or there was a weak occupant (like Janata Dal in Karnataka).

Also, it must not be forgotten that ideology, and other such nitpickings, can be indulged in only by the privileged few, who do not have to break sweat to break bread. And by definition, that's the upper classes. The laborer, the peasant, the thelawallah, the rickshaw-wala doesn't have the luxury to think of high-falutin cultural nationalism or anti-imperialism. They care for work, for peace, for medical care, for sewerage, for drinking water, for electricity.

I'm one with you on the terrorism issue. It's not a matter of political decision making that one way or the other would make a difference. It's a question of execution on the ground. And no matter which party rules, it's ultimately the same policewalla and intelligence agent at work. If they aren't efficient, or coordinated, or given good leadership, then the failures will remain the same. Accusing the BJP for Parliamentary attack or Akshardham attack is nothing but empty rhetoric. It would have been the same had Congress been in power. Just as the Mumbai attack would have happened even if the BJP was ruling Maharashtra.

Terrorism is something the police have not been trained to deal with. Forget dedicated, trained marksmen, our police force is incapable of dealing with even small time thieves, or traffic violators, or drunken hoodlums. That's their level of efficiency. If you are saying that you want POTA then basically it translates to giving fillip to the same inefficiency and incompetence by saying -- OK I know you can't find evidence, so I'll allow you to lock people up for several years without it too. We know that if they are let loose you'll not be able to follow them, because you are incapable of following even a cat.
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keep-it-cool

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2009, 12:57:06 PM »
I agree with you. A lot of these points are echoed by Swapan Dasgupta as well - I have posted his blog and article (TOI) on the other thread. The fact that even he, being a stauch supporter of the BJP, found a lot of the above issues problematic tells a story in itself.

http://www.swapan55.com/2009/05/won-all-battles-we-had-best-songs.html
« Last Edit: May 18, 2009, 01:19:30 PM by keep-it-cool »
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sudzz

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2009, 07:24:36 PM »
Very beautifully written , Proloy I think you've summed up the situation very accurately.

My own take is that the BJP rose from a earlier debacle of 1 seat in the LS to resurrect itself and take the national stage by storm predominantly because of some strong organisation and leadership.

With the advent of the Advani era both of these qualities have deserted them. They have managed to alienate large swathes of their electorate and even managed to confuse RSS their grassroots support base.

As you rightly surmised the BJP was completely bereft of a plank to stand on.

Even more surprising than the BJP was the left who almost played into congress hands by having a shoddy campaign and scoring some self goals as well ( apparently Karat allowed Tharoor to win by sabotaging Nair's campaign).

Well the one good thing out of all this is that Congress can actually have a full 5 year run this time around without having to look over its shoulder ever step of its way.
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vincent

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2009, 08:53:48 PM »
I agree with the brilliant analysis by Proloy.

In Karnataka, which was a Congress Bastion for decades, it was not just the incompetent JD(S) which helped BJP make inroads but also the infighting within the Congress Leaders - all of whom ex-CM's or other key Post-holders - that disgusted the public who looked elsewhere for better administration. There should have been more seats won in Karnataka for Congress, but for these greedy old timers. I hope Congress will do some soul-searching and replace these with some new, young blood.

BJP on the other hand, will have to really do some hardwork around governance, development and infrastructure which they have done nothing of since they are in power now more than a year. Taking the Gujarat Model and showcasing Modi will not work.
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keep-it-cool

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2009, 02:13:26 AM »
Who is this Byre Gowda who is supposed to have given a tough fight to some Ananth Kumar in Karnataka? I know he is a young Congress leader but was it such an uphill battle that it almost seems like a victory that he has come close?
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vincent

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2009, 07:23:42 AM »
Who is this Byre Gowda who is supposed to have given a tough fight to some Ananth Kumar in Karnataka? I know he is a young Congress leader but was it such an uphill battle that it almost seems like a victory that he has come close?

Yes, he is an exception to what I said above. He is young and does not carry the baggage of the oldies. Ananth Kumar on the other hand was the previous head of BJP in Karnataka and who built the BJP strength in the state and now a BJP top dog in Delhi. So, it was good to see that he was almost beaten by this newcomer.
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keep-it-cool

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2009, 07:37:10 AM »
Who is this Byre Gowda who is supposed to have given a tough fight to some Ananth Kumar in Karnataka? I know he is a young Congress leader but was it such an uphill battle that it almost seems like a victory that he has come close?

Yes, he is an exception to what I said above. He is young and does not carry the baggage of the oldies. Ananth Kumar on the other hand was the previous head of BJP in Karnataka and who built the BJP strength in the state and now a BJP top dog in Delhi. So, it was good to see that he was almost beaten by this newcomer.

I think there was a lot of talk around this guy because he is one of Rahul *hi's hand picked candidates. Did not realise that he was up against a heavyweight. Initially, I thought he was some relative of Deve Gowda!!!
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vincent

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2009, 05:29:10 PM »
And now, the reality hits home regardless of parties:
------------------------------------------------------------------------

India 'has 153 tainted new MPs'

At least 153 of the newly-elected MPs in India have criminal cases pending against them, according to a study by civil society groups.

Groups working on electoral reforms say the opposition BJP has the highest number of tainted MPs at 43 while the Congress party is number two with 41.

The group has written letters to senior Congress party leaders with an appeal to keep these MPs out of the cabinet.

Corruption and criminalisation of politics are major issues in India.

India is in the process of forming a new government.

Elections were held in April and May and a Congress party-led coalition is due to take power in the next few days.

'Declining'

"There are now 153 MPs with criminal charges and 74 of them with serious criminal charges," Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) and National Election Watch, a civil society alliance working for clean politics and accountable governance, said in a press release.

The study said the opposition BJP has most MPs with pending criminal cases at 43 - out of which 19 MPs have serious criminal cases against them.

The Congress party has 41 MPs with criminal cases - out of which 12 MPs have serious charges against them, it added.

The study said a comparison of top 10 MPs with criminal records in 2004 and 2009 elections indicated that number of candidates with very serious criminal backgrounds had declined.

"Several heavy weight candidates with a criminal background have been rejected by voters. In fact, top five MPs with criminal cases from the 2004 Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) have been rejected by voters."

But, what remains worrying is that many of the MPs are charged with serious criminal offences, including murder and gang war.

"It would be appropriate that none of the newly elected MPs with criminal cases pending against them be made ministers in the new government," the campaigners say in letters addressed to Manmohan Singh, widely tipped to return as the prime minister, Congress party President Sonia *hi and her son, Rahul *hi.

"In addition, it would be in the interests of setting an example, it would be nice if MPs with criminal cases pending against them are not made parliamentary secretaries or be nominated to any of the parliamentary committees."

Indian election rules do not prevent those charged with criminal cases from standing for electoral offices, they only bar those who have been convicted.

And considering India's slow judicial system, convictions often take years - even decades - to come.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/south_asia/8057325.stm

Published: 2009/05/19 13:42:32 GMT
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keep-it-cool

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Re: Indian politics comes a full circle
« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2009, 05:36:35 PM »
I posted a similar article on the Azhar thread. It is a systemic issue - the voters have to reject these candidates (atleast it seems those with more serious charges are being rejected). You can't prevent a charged person from contesting either because the same slow judicial process will make it unfair to these candidates.
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