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[LosingNow]

Down to 4.. Hillary, Obama, McCain and Romney
--
On the dem side..

Obama will win IL(home state), GA(black concentration), MA (Kennedy endorsement)... 3 states

Hillary will win NY, NJ, CA, AZ, AL, CT, OK, CO, UT, MO, AR, DE, KS, TN, AK, ND .. 16 states

Toss-ups : NM, ID, MN .. 3 states.

Hillary is clearly heading for the nomination...barring DRAMATIC last minute swing in favor of Obama

 

[openforum]

Down to 4.. Hillary, Obama, McCain and Romney
--
On the dem side..

Obama will win IL(home state), GA(black concentration), MA (Kennedy endorsement)... 3 states

Hillary will win NY, NJ, CA, AZ, AL, CT, OK, CO, UT, MO, AR, DE, KS, TN, AK, ND .. 16 states

Toss-ups : NM, ID, MN .. 3 states.

Hillary is clearly heading for the nomination...barring DRAMATIC last minute swing in favor of Obama

 

Based on current standings:

BO: IL(185), GA(103), KS(41), ID(23) => 342 (Assuming 60% and 40% vote: 205 delegates for BO, 137 for HC)
Total: 4 states - added ID, KS in place of MA because of ground support and endorsement of KS governor, MA in toss up

HC: NY(281 delegates), NJ(127), CA(441), AL(60), OK(47), MO(88), AR(47), DE(23), TN(85), ND(21), NM(38), AZ(67)
Total: 12 states (added NM, moved UT, AK, CO, CT to Tossup, moved KS to BO)
     => 1325 (Assuming 60% and 40% of vote: 795 for HC, 530 for BO)
     
Toss up(387 delegates, 193 for HC + 193 for BO):
AK (18)

UT(29) - 9 point lead for HC before SC

MA(121) - HC leads by 25+ points in earlier polls. It should be seen how ted kennedy endorsement helps

Colorado(71) - Latest poll: 34(BO)-32(HC) (tied)
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/15149123/detail.html

CT(60) - Latest poll: 40-40 (tied)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/connecticut/election_2008_connecticut_democratic_presidential_primary

MN(88)
===========================================================================================
Final delegates after feb 5: HC - 1125 + 256, BO - 928 + 181


If they are within 100 delegates difference: virginia, Ohio, Penn, NC, Texas will come into play later
There are still 400+ uncommitted superdelegates

If BO wins only 3 out of 22 states he will probably concede...

The race depends on where edwards' supporters will go. We will know in tomorrow's national poll

The republican contest is still fluid. Depends on how long Huckabee wants to continue. if he drops out quickly, it helps MR otherwise it helps JM.

[LosingNow]

Nice analysis, OF.

Few points:
1. I just don't think Obama can win AK (it will go the national route) and  UT/ID/KS (white majority ..I know you will cite Iowa..but this time it will not work).
2. The allocation will be >60% in HRC's favor in some larger states like NY, NJ and CA.. while I think BO will not get that favorable an allocation in GA.. maybe, IL he will get higher than 60% allocation.

Your difference is already 170+ delegates but I think it is the most favorable scenario for BO.

Finally, how do the superdelegates get committed.. If it is based on who wins the state..this difference will be further exacerbated.

Bottomline : In a national scenario, where TV is the main source of getting one's message across rather than intimate small town hall meetings .. BO is handicapped. This handicap is further exaggerated by some of the entrenched "racial" biases and polarization ..both whites and hispanics will not vote for a "black" candidate.

Let's see.

[ruchir]

You know, I had been watching the delegate and pledged delegate count for Dems and Repubs for a long time. But I realised one thing after Florida primary.

No delegates were in play for Dems in Florida. Still you saw a million+ Dems come out to vote. Hill Kill got 200k+ more votes than Mac (Repub winner).

Now, here is the main thing, IMO. The states where Obama has won, he has canvassed there widely, given speeches, lectures etc. So, when he is able to go out in public in a state, he is able to overshadow Hill because of his oratory skill, pleasing personality etc. etc., like in Iowa, SC etc. But, in the states where no candidate did any canvassing, like in MI, FL, Hill Kill has got large number of votes. You may think that Obama was not on the ballot in MI, but lot of Obama and Edwards supporters went out and voted 'Uncommitted' there. Still Hill Kill got 328k+ while 'Uncommitted' votes were 237k+. In FL, we know there was huge difference between Kill and Obama (17%).

I feel the reason it is happening like this is that, places where Obama doesn't go personally, in those places people make their minds based on debates and TV interviews. In those areas, Hill Kill outshines Obama completely. In the debate before Florida, when Hill attacked Obama, he was left hemming and hawing like SRK. If you have paid attention to the debates, Obama spends less time in explaining his policies on various issues like Immigration, Economy, Foreign affairs, and spends more time in beating around the bush. I heard on radio, while driving to work, that when Obama camp trains the campaign volunteers, they are specifically told to not talk at all about Obama's policies. They are told to take the conversation toward how their personal experiences converted them to vote Obama. It's all about personality, nothing about policy. Obama knows he is too new to have any policy background or history, so he is fighting a personality campaign. That works when he is able to mingle with people, but doesn't when people make their minds based on debates and interviews.

Now Obama can at best cover 5-6 states before super Tuesday. That too max 1 day in each state. This will mean that he won't have the same personal effect on people that he would have had otherwise, if he had more time to spend. I don't think he will win so many delegates in the 22 Tuesday state as people think he might. Yes, he might win in those few states where there is black concentration, otherwise I feel Hill Kill might just seal the deal on Tuesday.

Kennedy endorsement to Obama is countered by other Kennedy endorsement to Hill. Even an ex-Repub congresswoman from California - Maxine Waters, is endorsing Hill. I don't think Kerry endorsement amounts to much. He is defunct anyways.

Personally, I don't think past Tuesday the race will be a close one at all, for Dems, though I might be wrong. I feel it is just too much for Obama to win in those states where he can not go and spend time in public. Hill Kill attraction there is too much to overcome.

[openforum]

Nice analysis, OF.

Few points:
1. I just don't think Obama can win AK (it will go the national route) and  UT/ID/KS (white majority ..I know you will cite Iowa..but this time it will not work).
2. The allocation will be >60% in HRC's favor in some larger states like NY, NJ and CA.. while I think BO will not get that favorable an allocation in GA.. maybe, IL he will get higher than 60% allocation.

Your difference is already 170+ delegates but I think it is the most favorable scenario for BO.

Finally, how do the superdelegates get committed.. If it is based on who wins the state..this difference will be further exacerbated.

Bottomline : In a national scenario, where TV is the main source of getting one's message across rather than intimate small town hall meetings .. BO is handicapped. This handicap is further exaggerated by some of the entrenched "racial" biases and polarization ..both whites and hispanics will not vote for a "black" candidate.

Let's see.

Reasons for my estimates:
   Idaho : Only 10k expected to turnout for the caucus. Obama is visiting Idaho and has a good organization. So I think he will win in a low turnout primary.
   KS: The governor endorsed Obama.
       http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/28/AR2008012802558_2.html

  I agree about UT and AK. Thats why I put them in tossup.       

All recent rasmussen super tuesday polls here:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/most_recent_rasmussen_reports_primary_polling

California is close(43-40) before Edwards dropped.
MA is getting closer (6 points from the previous 30 points). NY, NJ, Missouri, OK, TN are solid for HC.
Edit: Half of CA is voting absentee. So even if BO goes past HC by polling day, the damage is done.

[LosingNow]

You know, I had been watching the delegate and pledged delegate count for Dems and Repubs for a long time. But I realised one thing after Florida primary.

No delegates were in play for Dems in Florida. Still you saw a million+ Dems come out to vote. Hill Kill got 200k+ more votes than Mac (Repub winner).

Now, here is the main thing, IMO. The states where Obama has won, he has canvassed there widely, given speeches, lectures etc. So, when he is able to go out in public in a state, he is able to overshadow Hill because of his oratory skill, pleasing personality etc. etc., like in Iowa, SC etc. But, in the states where no candidate did any canvassing, like in MI, FL, Hill Kill has got large number of votes. You may think that Obama was not on the ballot in MI, but lot of Obama and Edwards supporters went out and voted 'Uncommitted' there. Still Hill Kill got 328k+ while 'Uncommitted' votes were 237k+. In FL, we know there was huge difference between Kill and Obama (17%).

I feel the reason it is happening like this is that, places where Obama doesn't go personally, in those places people make their minds based on debates and TV interviews. In those areas, Hill Kill outshines Obama completely. In the debate before Florida, when Hill attacked Obama, he was left hemming and hawing like SRK. If you have paid attention to the debates, Obama spends less time in explaining his policies on various issues like Immigration, Economy, Foreign affairs, and spends more time in beating around the bush. I heard on radio, while driving to work, that when Obama camp trains the campaign volunteers, they are specifically told to not talk at all about Obama's policies. They are told to take the conversation toward how their personal experiences converted them to vote Obama. It's all about personality, nothing about policy. Obama knows he is too new to have any policy background or history, so he is fighting a personality campaign. That works when he is able to mingle with people, but doesn't when people make their minds based on debates and interviews.

Now Obama can at best cover 5-6 states before super Tuesday. That too max 1 day in each state. This will mean that he won't have the same personal effect on people that he would have had otherwise, if he had more time to spend. I don't think he will win so many delegates in the 22 Tuesday state as people think he might. Yes, he might win in those few states where there is black concentration, otherwise I feel Hill Kill might just seal the deal on Tuesday.

Kennedy endorsement to Obama is countered by other Kennedy endorsement to Hill. Even an ex-Repub congresswoman from California - Maxine Waters, is endorsing Hill. I don't think Kerry endorsement amounts to much. He is defunct anyways.

Personally, I don't think past Tuesday the race will be a close one at all, for Dems, though I might be wrong. I feel it is just too much for Obama to win in those states where he can not go and spend time in public. Hill Kill attraction there is too much to overcome.

Exactly.. this guys is all talk and no details.. all his "change" stuff, sounds like mumbo-jumbo to most middle and lower income working families. They want something tangible.
It will be very difficult for Obama to win the dem nomination with support of college-going kids, upper-income whites, and mostly black voters. The broad base of the democratic party is the middle/lower-income, middle-aged whites.

[LosingNow]

Nice analysis, OF.

Few points:
1. I just don't think Obama can win AK (it will go the national route) and  UT/ID/KS (white majority ..I know you will cite Iowa..but this time it will not work).
2. The allocation will be >60% in HRC's favor in some larger states like NY, NJ and CA.. while I think BO will not get that favorable an allocation in GA.. maybe, IL he will get higher than 60% allocation.

Your difference is already 170+ delegates but I think it is the most favorable scenario for BO.

Finally, how do the superdelegates get committed.. If it is based on who wins the state..this difference will be further exacerbated.

Bottomline : In a national scenario, where TV is the main source of getting one's message across rather than intimate small town hall meetings .. BO is handicapped. This handicap is further exaggerated by some of the entrenched "racial" biases and polarization ..both whites and hispanics will not vote for a "black" candidate.

Let's see.

Reasons for my estimates:
   Idaho : Only 10k expected to turnout for the caucus. Obama is visiting Idaho and has a good organization. So I think he will win in a low turnout primary.
   KS: The governor endorsed Obama.
       http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/28/AR2008012802558_2.html

  I agree about UT and AK. Thats why I put them in tossup.       

All recent rasmussen super tuesday polls here:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/most_recent_rasmussen_reports_primary_polling

California is close(43-40) before Edwards dropped.
MA is getting closer (6 points from the previous 30 points). NY, NJ, Missouri, OK, TN are solid for HC.
Edit: Half of CA is voting absentee. So even if BO goes past HC by polling day, the damage is done.

"The race is tightening, Obama is rising etc"... I think media is really hyping this guy.
Let's see. These polls have been wrong before!

[openforum]

"The race is tightening, Obama is rising etc"... I think media is really hyping this guy.
Let's see. These polls have been wrong before!

I agree about the media and the polls. I believe at this point HC is a strong favorite barring a huge surge from BO.

Answering your previous question: Superdelegates are party establishment (all congreeman, governors, party chair persons etc) who can support who ever they want. In a close race they will decide who gets the nomination.

[LosingNow]

"The race is tightening, Obama is rising etc"... I think media is really hyping this guy.
Let's see. These polls have been wrong before!

I agree about the media and the polls. I believe at this point HC is a strong favorite barring a huge surge from BO.

Answering your previous question: Superdelegates are party establishment (all congreeman, governors, party chair persons etc) who can support who ever they want. In a close race they will decide who gets the nomination.

Check the video out in this link ...
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/31/152013/116

Dan Abrams rocks!

[LosingNow]

I missed the HC vs BO debate.. who won? Will it change the dynamics of the race or is HC cruising for a super tuesday win.

[ruchir]

I missed the HC vs BO debate.. who won? Will it change the dynamics of the race or is HC cruising for a super tuesday win.

Watch the entire debate here: http://www.youdecide2008.com/2008/02/01/video-cnn-democratic-debate-from-california-13108/

Very cordial debate, for a change. Wolf Blitzer tried to bait Hill twice by saying that Obama is taking a swipe at you, but Hill resisted and laughed it off.

Once again, Obama hemmed a lot, specially on his vote on giving driver license to illegals. He had voted yes and Hill voted no. He tried to get back by saying that Hill was wrong to have supported the very first Bush bill to go in Iraq, that he voted no. So, he said it's not enough to be ready on day 1, it is important to be right on day 1, so vote for me. To me, it looked hollow.

In the debate, he made a lot of applause-worthy statements, or one-liners, to be specific. But they were just that. Whenever time came to explain his policy, he would make a one-liner. Hill had better explanations on Healthcare, foreign policy etc.

While debate was going on, on CNN, FOX was having their own show with Hannity & Colmes. They had a group of 20-25 Dems of all kinds. So, in between the debate one guy (Frank Luntz) would ask them questions on the answers given by Ob and Kill. It was funny. All the blacks said that they liked Ob's reply. When asked what exactly did they like, they would have no answer. At best they would say that they could identify with him and he could identify with them. 

[LosingNow]

Ruchir, Thanks for the summary..sounds like a predictable debate.

I will watch the debate over the link provided by you this weekend.

[ruchir]

Killton gets teary eyed again, in MA... reports CNN.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/02/04/sot.clinton.personal.cnn?iref=videosearch

[LosingNow]

Early results.. Huckabee lives. Obama fighting hard in CT and MA.

WOW.. these races appear like they are not done!

[openforum]

Based on current standings:

BO: IL(185), GA(103), KS(41), ID(23) => 342 (Assuming 60% and 40% vote: 205 delegates for BO, 137 for HC)
Total: 4 states - added ID, KS in place of MA because of ground support and endorsement of KS governor, MA in toss up

HC: NY(281 delegates), NJ(127), CA(441), AL(60), OK(47), MO(88), AR(47), DE(23), TN(85), ND(21), NM(38), AZ(67)
Total: 12 states (added NM, moved UT, AK, CO, CT to Tossup, moved KS to BO)
     => 1325 (Assuming 60% and 40% of vote: 795 for HC, 530 for BO)
     
Toss up(387 delegates, 193 for HC + 193 for BO):
AK (18)

UT(29) - 9 point lead for HC before SC

MA(121) - HC leads by 25+ points in earlier polls. It should be seen how ted kennedy endorsement helps

Colorado(71) - Latest poll: 34(BO)-32(HC) (tied)
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/15149123/detail.html

CT(60) - Latest poll: 40-40 (tied)


MN(88)
===========================================================================================
Final delegates after feb 5: HC - 1125 + 256, BO - 928 + 181

Obama:
easy wins: MN, IL, GA, KS, ID

close: CT, obama snatches DE, AL, NM from clinton

Clinton:
close: MA, AZ,  MO, NJ

NY, TN, AR, OK cake walk for HC
 
Still unresolved:
UT, AK, CO, CA, ND to watch...

[Shukla]

What will the delegate picture look like after today? I thought Obama will win 4 states, but he clearly is winning more.

[LosingNow]

Based on current standings:

BO: IL(185), GA(103), KS(41), ID(23) => 342 (Assuming 60% and 40% vote: 205 delegates for BO, 137 for HC)
Total: 4 states - added ID, KS in place of MA because of ground support and endorsement of KS governor, MA in toss up

HC: NY(281 delegates), NJ(127), CA(441), AL(60), OK(47), MO(88), AR(47), DE(23), TN(85), ND(21), NM(38), AZ(67)
Total: 12 states (added NM, moved UT, AK, CO, CT to Tossup, moved KS to BO)
     => 1325 (Assuming 60% and 40% of vote: 795 for HC, 530 for BO)
     
Toss up(387 delegates, 193 for HC + 193 for BO):
AK (18)

UT(29) - 9 point lead for HC before SC

MA(121) - HC leads by 25+ points in earlier polls. It should be seen how ted kennedy endorsement helps

Colorado(71) - Latest poll: 34(BO)-32(HC) (tied)
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/15149123/detail.html

CT(60) - Latest poll: 40-40 (tied)


MN(88)
===========================================================================================
Final delegates after feb 5: HC - 1125 + 256, BO - 928 + 181

Obama:
easy wins: MN, IL, GA, KS, ID

close: CT, obama snatches DE, AL, NM from clinton

Clinton:
close: MA, AZ,  MO, NJ

NY, TN, AR, OK cake walk for HC
 
Still unresolved:
UT, AK, CO, CA, ND to watch...

the states could split even .. that is a huge movement in favor for Obama.

GA, IL, AL, DE, KS, MN, ND, ID .. for Obama - 8 states
MA, MO, NJ, NY,OK, TN, AR .. for Hillary - 7 states

CT .. too close to call

UT, AZ, CO, CA, AK, NM(where are you getting your #s from?)  .. results awaited

Given the pattern.. BO could take UT, CO, NM.. and win 11 out of the 22 .. and split the states. That would be a shocker.

If Hillary wins CA, AZ, NM.. she would have had a good night with Hispanics and in North East and the 4 non-black dominated states in the south. She could still get a 100+ delegate lead

[LosingNow]

What will the delegate picture look like after today? I thought Obama will win 4 states, but he clearly is winning more.

Obama has had a good night .. states wise. We will know later tomorrow how the delegates break...but this is not good news for Hillary. She has a tough february ahead.

[openforum]

the states could split even .. that is a huge movement in favor for Obama.

GA, IL, AL, DE, KS, MN, ND, ID .. for Obama - 8 states
MA, MO, NJ, NY,OK, TN, AR .. for Hillary - 7 states

CT .. too close to call

UT, AZ, CO, CA, AK, NM(where are you getting your #s from?)  .. results awaited

Given the pattern.. BO could take UT, CO, NM.. and win 11 out of the 22 .. and split the states. That would be a shocker.

If Hillary wins CA, AZ, NM.. she would have had a good night with Hispanics and in North East and the 4 non-black dominated states in the south. She could still get a 100+ delegate lead

I put NM and CT for obama based on exit polls on cnn. (same reason for AZ in clinton category)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NMDEM

[LosingNow]

the states could split even .. that is a huge movement in favor for Obama.

GA, IL, AL, DE, KS, MN, ND, ID .. for Obama - 8 states
MA, MO, NJ, NY,OK, TN, AR .. for Hillary - 7 states

CT .. too close to call

UT, AZ, CO, CA, AK, NM(where are you getting your #s from?)  .. results awaited

Given the pattern.. BO could take UT, CO, NM.. and win 11 out of the 22 .. and split the states. That would be a shocker.

If Hillary wins CA, AZ, NM.. she would have had a good night with Hispanics and in North East and the 4 non-black dominated states in the south. She could still get a 100+ delegate lead

I put NM and CT for obama based on exit polls on cnn. (same reason for AZ in clinton category)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NMDEM

I think they are too close to call.

UT, ND go to Obama.. with 20K votes each!!
That makes it 9 states for Obama.. he is picking up all these small states.

[LosingNow]

the states could split even .. that is a huge movement in favor for Obama.

GA, IL, AL, DE, KS, MN, ND, ID .. for Obama - 8 states
MA, MO, NJ, NY,OK, TN, AR .. for Hillary - 7 states

CT .. too close to call

UT, AZ, CO, CA, AK, NM(where are you getting your #s from?)  .. results awaited

Given the pattern.. BO could take UT, CO, NM.. and win 11 out of the 22 .. and split the states. That would be a shocker.

If Hillary wins CA, AZ, NM.. she would have had a good night with Hispanics and in North East and the 4 non-black dominated states in the south. She could still get a 100+ delegate lead

I put NM and CT for obama based on exit polls on cnn. (same reason for AZ in clinton category)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NMDEM

I think they are too close to call.

UT, ND go to Obama.. with 20K votes each!!
That makes it 9 states for Obama.. he is picking up all these small states.

Add CO to BO.. 10 states now.

AZ, CA, NM, AK left

[openforum]

Add CO to BO.. 10 states now.

AZ, CA, NM, AK left

IMHO, AZ and NM can be called based on exit polls (NM- BO tied with HC in women category and leading in the men category, BO losing to HC with women in AZ )

CA(because of absentee ballots) and AK might not be in before 2:00 am EST. I'll sleep. How many delegates difference do you think there will be?
Based on my previous calulation, BO might cover 100 delegates. That will keep them within 100 delegate difference. Still advantage clinton and it all depends on media hype and super delegates from here

[LosingNow]

Add CO to BO.. 10 states now.

AZ, CA, NM, AK left

IMHO, AZ and NM can be called based on exit polls (NM- BO tied with HC in women category and leading in the men category, BO losing to HC with women in AZ )

CA(because of absentee ballots) and AK might not be in before 2:00 am EST. I'll sleep. How many delegates difference do you think there will be?
Based on my previous calulation, BO might cover 100 delegates. That will keep them within 100 delegate difference. Still advantage clinton and it all depends on media hype and super delegates from here

Fox is calling CT for BO.. and early real votes show AZ, NM for BO. This is not looking good for HC. AZ is a shocker, IMO. Looks like Janet Napolitano has delivered the state to BO.

You are right HC could get a 100 delegate lead tonight.

..but February calendar is loaded against her. 

[Shukla]

What happens to delegates who are pledged to Edwards?

[openforum]

What happens to delegates who are pledged to Edwards?

If he endorses someone the ymight vote for that candidate but they are free to chose. Considering he has just 26 delegates, it might not be a factor unless it is very very close. The super delegates will decide the nomination in all probability.

[broadbat]

Looks like HC is going to pick up California.

[LosingNow]

Obama will win more than majority of states ... WOW!!!

BO = AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT, AK - 12 states

HC = AZ, AR, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, CA - 9 states

NM .. not declared yet.

No denying awesome night for BO. Wonder what will happen in the general election. BO has won all the "red" states..but will he win them in General Election?

BTW what is going on with MO.. AP calls it for HC.. and with 98% votes reported, BO is leading by 3K votes!!!

[openforum]

Obama will win more than majority of states ... WOW!!!

BO = AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT, AK - 12 states

HC = AZ, AR, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, CA - 9 states

NM .. not declared yet.

No denying awesome night for BO. Wonder what will happen in the general election. BO has won all the "red" states..but will he win them in General Election?

BTW what is going on with MO.. AP calls it for HC.. and with 98% votes reported, BO is leading by 3K votes!!!

MO call is strange... BO is leading in all counties that are still reporting. All other counties have reported 100%.

[broadbat]

Even though BO seems to have won a lot of states I don't know how many delegates he will pick up? The big ones seem to be with HC.

[LosingNow]

Obama will win more than majority of states ... WOW!!!

BO = AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT, AK - 12 states

HC = AZ, AR, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, CA - 9 states

NM .. not declared yet.

No denying awesome night for BO. Wonder what will happen in the general election. BO has won all the "red" states..but will he win them in General Election?

BTW what is going on with MO.. AP calls it for HC.. and with 98% votes reported, BO is leading by 3K votes!!!

MO call is strange... BO is leading in all counties that are still reporting. All other counties have reported 100%.

Agree... i think the projectors might have egg on their face

[LosingNow]

Even though BO seems to have won a lot of states I don't know how many delegates he will pick up? The big ones seem to be with HC.

She won the big states.. BO won all these small states ID, ND, UT, AK etc with total votes close to 10K each!!

Watch Bill and Hillary come out swinging!!

[openforum]

Obama will win more than majority of states ... WOW!!!

BO = AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT, AK - 12 states

HC = AZ, AR, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, CA - 9 states

NM .. not declared yet.

No denying awesome night for BO. Wonder what will happen in the general election. BO has won all the "red" states..but will he win them in General Election?

BTW what is going on with MO.. AP calls it for HC.. and with 98% votes reported, BO is leading by 3K votes!!!

MO call is strange... BO is leading in all counties that are still reporting. All other counties have reported 100%.

Agree... i think the projectors might have egg on their face

Fox calls MO for BO. Good night WN and Broadbat and Shukla

[LosingNow]

Now they are calling MO for BO..

Barack wins the States race .. 

BO = AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT, AK, MO - 13 states

HC = AZ, AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN, CA - 8 states

NM ??

[LosingNow]

G'nite. NM will come tomorrow.. and it will all come down to delegates. HC may have a narrow lead.

[Shukla]

Obama will win more than majority of states ... WOW!!!

BO = AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT, AK - 12 states

HC = AZ, AR, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, CA - 9 states

NM .. not declared yet.

No denying awesome night for BO. Wonder what will happen in the general election. BO has won all the "red" states..but will he win them in General Election?

BTW what is going on with MO.. AP calls it for HC.. and with 98% votes reported, BO is leading by 3K votes!!!

MO call is strange... BO is leading in all counties that are still reporting. All other counties have reported 100%.

Agree... i think the projectors might have egg on their face

Fox calls MO for BO. Good night WN and Broadbat and Shukla

Good night OP.

[dextrous]

Now they are calling MO for BO..

Barack wins the States race .. 

BO = AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT, AK, MO - 13 states

HC = AZ, AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN, CA - 8 states

NM ??

yeah, states dotn matter much though. HC winning in MA was pretty cool given that both senators and the gov. had endorse BO!  if democrates had winner takes all delegates, hillary wouldve certainly gone way ahead with states like NY, CA, MA giving her big numbers...but with the proportional breakdown, this thing will go on

[LosingNow]

The morning after..

Frankly, I am worried for HC now. The next 6-7 states before Texas & Ohio on Mar 4 look like they will be taken by Obama. He will go into Mar 4 with delegate leads and big momentum. For the next 4 weeks all we are going to hear is "Obama, Obama" from media and his fundraising is already going through the roof.

The other worrying part is that BO is creeping up on white males ...while consolidating his hold on blacks. Hillary has 2 constituencies left - white women and latinos. She needs to fight the battle for white males. If the turnout remains high.. she will struggle as the white male vote will be younger people .. who are favoring BO.

Clintons need some serious campaigning (and perhaps a miracle) to stem this potential tide. I expect Bill to come out swinging.

If Clintons win Ohio and Texas.. expect this nomination to go to the convention...because HC would have won the "blue" states while BO would have won "red" states ..and in a general election no democrat can expect to win with the backing of "red" states.. they will go for GOP. The opposite is true for McCain .. he is winning all the "blue" states. If BO and JM are nominees, we will have a very strange general election.

[openforum]

yeah, states dotn matter much though. HC winning in MA was pretty cool given that both senators and the gov. had endorse BO!  if democrates had winner takes all delegates, hillary wouldve certainly gone way ahead with states like NY, CA, MA giving her big numbers...but with the proportional breakdown, this thing will go on

She was 35+ points ahead in MA before kennedy endorsed obama. So that is good win but not a great fightback. Look at the impact here:
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/this_is_impact.php

Next up NE, WA, LA, USVI followed by maine - NE, WA and ME are caucuses.  Any calls on LA, USVI and WA? I think NE and ME will go to Obama.

[ruchir]

Republican Delegates (1,191 needed to win nomination)
Candidate    Delegates
Mike Huckabee    190
John McCain       613
Ron Paul              14
Mitt Romney       269
Total              1,086

Democratic Delegates (2,026 needed to win nomination)
Candidate    Delegates
Hillary Clinton      845
John Edwards       26
Mike Gravel            0
Barack Obama     765
Total               1,636

Disclaimer: Different sites have different figures. Above figures are total of delegate won + superdelegates pledged.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, Republican race is pretty much sealed in McCain's favor... all because Phuckabee did not drop out before Super Tuesday and that resulted in him cutting a lot of Raomney votes.

Damn, I am having serious thoughts about voting Republican, seeing what McCain has said about immigration (giving amnesty), Iraq war (be there for 100 years), Economy (accepted he's weak there). This is simply a disaster for Republican party. Even Pitamah's favorite, Ann Coulter, said on Fox that if McCain wins nomination she will openly campaign for Hill Kill because she feels Kill will be better in every aspect than Mac.

On Democrat side, Ob performed better than I expected. The delegate difference is just 80, I was expecting it to be more like 120. Ob really surprised me in Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Minnesota, North Dakota -- the northern states. I did not expect him to do so well there. On the other hand, Hill Kill well in south and California. In many states where she lost, she got about the same delegates as Ob. However, her not winning CT, Minn, ID, ND meant that she lost precious delegates there. This race is now way closer than what I thought.

Next Dem states are:

Feb-09: Lou, Neb, Wash.

Feb-10: Maine

Feb-12: DC, MD, VA

Here is the projected/pledged delegates for these states

State      Hill        Ob
----------------------
VA           6          3
WA          4          2
Neb          0         1
MD           8         3
Lou          1          0
DC           9          3
----------------------

DC, MD, Lou, VA are the states with large black population. I think if Hill does as well here as is projected, she is gonna cut into Ob's votes. What Ob can do now to cut into her votes? I don't know.

One of the major thing going for Kill was her victory in MA and CA.

In MA, most of the Kennedys supported Ob, still Kill defeated On with a huge margin (60-43 delegates). In CA, Ob was supported by Oprah, Arnold's wife, lot of Hollywood actors, lot of Dem politicians. Still Kill defeated Ob handsomely (10 points). To me it shows that despite all the variables, Hill Kill is still retaining her voter base. If she continues to do that till March, she should be set to win nomination. Victories in California and New York will go a long way in her campaign in important (populous) states going to poll next.


Edit: It seems California delegates have not been counted and aproportioned yet. CA has 441 total delegates, 371 delegates and 70 superdelegates. only 65 delegates have been assigned and most probably they are superdelegates. So, division of 371 delegates is still on. If Hill is able to make a gap between delegates won by her and Ob in CA, she would start feeling more safe.

[dextrous]

by the way, hillary actually won the youth vote over obama in both calif and MA--two states with some of the biggest youth vote #s. but, regardless of who wins the upcoming states, we can see a close battle delegate wise...so if we end up with roughly 50-50 tie in terms of delegates, hillary has the edge in # of superdelegates. so she still has a good chance.

ruchir--ann coulter said that?! wow!