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[Total Members Voted:]

Hillary

9 (50%)

Obama

5 (27.8%)

Edwards

3 (16.7%)

Other

1 (5.6%)

Total Members Voted: 18

Voting closed: January 03, 2008, 07:15:35 AM

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[dextrous]

it seems like NH primary allows independents to vote in the primaries as well...whcih means obama will most likely win NH since independants tend to side with the supposed moderate who speaks well (like john mccain, tho the guy is no moderate)

i really dont understand the logic of these strange caucuses, primaries not restricted to the party...bah.

[openforum]

it seems like NH primary allows independents to vote in the primaries as well...whcih means obama will most likely win NH since independants tend to side with the supposed moderate who speaks well (like john mccain, tho the guy is no moderate)

i really dont understand the logic of these strange caucuses, primaries not restricted to the party...bah.

Yes. The CNN/WMUR poll did not poll independents from my understanding which is the difference "The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, surveyed 341 Democrats and 268 Republicans likely to vote in Tuesday's primary. It had a sampling error of 5 percentage points."

About the strange caucuses/primaries: I am stumped too but i guess the emphasis is on states rights and each state (state wing of the parties) has its own way of doing things...

[openforum]

Not entirely true, WN.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/06/nh.poll/index.html

With the New Hampshire primary fast approaching, it's dead even in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are tied, with each grabbing the support of 33 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the Granite State, according to a new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire presidential primary poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is in third place with 20 percent, according to the poll, which was released Saturday afternoon, three days before the primary.

"Both Obama and Edwards appear to have benefited from the Iowa caucuses. Each picked up three points in New Hampshire. Clinton lost one point, since our last poll taken before the caucuses," said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Loss of one point.... let's see on the caucus day. 

BTW, Hillary ripped into Obama in the Jan-05 ABC debate. I watched the entire replay. Obama was hamming (SRK style) to answer Hillary's points. He was forced to say 'Let us not indulge in personal attacks', rather than forcefully refute Hillary. In fact, Edwards had to come to his rescue.

Entire Dem debate: http://www.youdecide2008.com/2008/01/06/video-abc-news-democratic-debate-from-new-hampshire-1508/

Entire Rep debate: http://www.youdecide2008.com/2008/01/06/video-abc-news-republican-debate-from-new-hampshire-1-5-08/

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/06/nh.poll/index.html
Same poll obama with 10 point lead after 1 day!!!!
"Obama, the first-term senator from Illinois who won last week's Iowa caucuses, led the New York senator and former first lady 39 percent to 29 percent in a poll conducted Saturday and Sunday -- a sharp change from a poll out Saturday that showed the Democratic front-runners tied at 33 percent. "

[ruchir]

I saw that OF... 

Damn, these number are probably changing every hour!!! Looks like Hillary is in for a rough ride. Bad news for Dems, though.

[LosingNow]

I saw that OF... 

Damn, these number are probably changing every hour!!! Looks like Hillary is in for a rough ride. Bad news for Dems, though.

Oh well, they are shooting themselves in the foot.

[ruchir]

http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/07/candidates-make-final-pitches-ahead-of-new-hampshire-primary/

Clinton Feels Heat, Lashes Out at Obama Ahead of New Hampshire Primary

[ruchir]

Here's the video of the said chocking incident. Nothing big, she chokes while talking about herself.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/01/07/clinton.emotional.cnn?iref=videosearch

[LosingNow]

As I read the US press from far away here.. looks like Hillary is in a free-fall and Obama is rocketing ahead.

Oh man.

[ruchir]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

Read this page to see how Dem system works. Here are some important points for their primaries:

Special Notes

• Total Delegates* - This number includes pledged delegates and superdelegates
• There are currently 4,049 total delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025.
• Superdelegates in the Democratic Party are typically members of the Democratic National Committee, elected officials like senators or governors, or party leaders. They do not have to indicate a candidate preference and do not have to compete for their position. If a superdelegate dies or is unable to participate at the convention, alternates do not replace that delegate, which would reduce the total delegates number and the "magic number" needed to clinch the nomination.
• For more about the delegate selection process, click here.
• The “Other” category includes pledged delegates and superdelegates that represent Democrats in American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and living abroad.
• Winner: This refers to CNN's projected winner for each race until a final result has been determined. How CNN projects winners
• Magic Number: This refers to the total number of delegate votes needed by a candidate to win the party's nomination.
• Delegates and Total Delegates: In the area showing the projected winner in individual races through the most recent race date, "Delegates" refers to the number of pledged delegates awarded to each candidate. In the state-by-state breakdown, "Total Delegates" refers to the total CNN delegate estimate for each candidate, including both pledged delegates and superdelegates.

--------------------------------------------

Now look at the pledged delegates for Hillary and Obama (on the left). 159 to 66. Of course, this number is virtual, but it still gives you a national picture. Now scroll down to the state list and come to Iowa. See how many delegates Obama and Hillary won. Obama won 18 and Hillary won 16. So, although Obama won the state but won only 2 more delegates.

I don't exactly know how the delegate system works but, it will be too early to call Hillary out. More over, New Hampshire only 27 delegates. So, we will have to wait and see a little longer, how many delegates which candidate keeps on winning.

[dextrous]

super tuesday is what matters but by then hillary will have to win a few states to be in the contest still

[openforum]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

Read this page to see how Dem system works. Here are some important points for their primaries:

Special Notes

• Total Delegates* - This number includes pledged delegates and superdelegates
• There are currently 4,049 total delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025.
• Superdelegates in the Democratic Party are typically members of the Democratic National Committee, elected officials like senators or governors, or party leaders. They do not have to indicate a candidate preference and do not have to compete for their position. If a superdelegate dies or is unable to participate at the convention, alternates do not replace that delegate, which would reduce the total delegates number and the "magic number" needed to clinch the nomination.
• For more about the delegate selection process, click here.
• The “Other” category includes pledged delegates and superdelegates that represent Democrats in American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and living abroad.
• Winner: This refers to CNN's projected winner for each race until a final result has been determined. How CNN projects winners
• Magic Number: This refers to the total number of delegate votes needed by a candidate to win the party's nomination.
• Delegates and Total Delegates: In the area showing the projected winner in individual races through the most recent race date, "Delegates" refers to the number of pledged delegates awarded to each candidate. In the state-by-state breakdown, "Total Delegates" refers to the total CNN delegate estimate for each candidate, including both pledged delegates and superdelegates.

--------------------------------------------

Now look at the pledged delegates for Hillary and Obama (on the left). 159 to 66. Of course, this number is virtual, but it still gives you a national picture. Now scroll down to the state list and come to Iowa. See how many delegates Obama and Hillary won. Obama won 18 and Hillary won 16. So, although Obama won the state but won only 2 more delegates.

I don't exactly know how the delegate system works but, it will be too early to call Hillary out. More over, New Hampshire only 27 delegates. So, we will have to wait and see a little longer, how many delegates which candidate keeps on winning.

From wikipedia:
"Superdelegates are delegates to a presidential nominating convention in the United States who are not bound by the decisions of party primaries or caucuses. Superdelegates are elected officeholders and party officials."

The 159 to 66 number is the super delegate number. The pldged delegates will have to vote for the candidates. It is true that 2025 delegates is hard if everyone gets 30% like in IA. But if one of the candidates drop out the front runner will get the majority.

Like Dex said Feb. 5 is when it will be decided and HC can come back only if she wins two of SC/NV/FL/NH.

[openforum]

Clinton leading 40-35 with 12% of precincts reporting in NH

[ruchir]

OF --

I thought the numbers 159 and 66 represented delegates and super delegates...

Anyways, Hillary seems to be giving Obama some serious headache and tummyache... 

In fact, TV shows that Hillary's delegate total has swelled to 175 from 159.

[ruchir]

 

Killton delivers the sucker punch to Hussien... Oh man, this is getting good. It seems like her attacking Obama in Saturday debate and her chocking act did the trick for her. Seriously, this is what acts of genius are. Hats off to whoever thought of it.

Seems like you can not fully believe the polls anymore!!!

Looks like it is a two-way race now, Edwards don't count anymore. He will be hurting Obama if he continues to run, cutting into anti-Killton votes.

Nationally, however, it seems Obama is suddenly surging since 1/1/08. He has reduced the margin to nothing. Let us see how accurate these figures turn out to be or if they fluctuate after SC primary or Super Tuesday (when lot of states go for their primary).